Here’s where I feel like things stand at this point.

ButEEAAO’s surprising over-performance (song!

indicates broad support across the Academy’s branches.

Awardist Oscar Predictions

Stephanie Hsu, Michelle Yeoh, and Ke Huy Quan in ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once.'.Allyson Riggs/A24

So now to me, it looks like the presumptive winner.

(In case you forgot,here’s who won.)

But here we are.The Whale’sBrendan Fraserremains a sentimental favorite among so many people in the industry.

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Stephanie Hsu, Michelle Yeoh, and Ke Huy Quan in ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once.'.Allyson Riggs/A24

But I’m focusing on Colin Farrell andElvis’sAustin Butler, whose films did better overall.

I give the edge to Farrell for his varied career that has only gotten more impressive over the years.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett,TAR

God bless Andrea Riseborough for addingsome genuine excitementto this category.

The Fabelmans

Star Gabriel LaBelle and director Steven Spielberg on the set of ‘The Fabelmans’.Merie Weismiller Wallace/Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment

I’m so glad she’s in here, but I don’t think she can win.

He’s been gracious and grateful, and the performance is one that rewards repeat viewings.

PossiblyJamie Lee Curtis, another beloved veteran who has never won an Academy Award.

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

Colin Farrell with Jenny the Donkey in ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’.Jonathan Hession/Searchlight Pictures

Call it a lifetime achievement prize, but it seems inevitable.

And “Oscar winner Angela Bassett” is long overdue.

Watch this space for his regularly updated rankings within the major categories.

TAR

Focus Features

Ke Huy Quan

Ke Huy Quan in ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’.A24

‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’

‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’.Marvel Studios