Inside our Oscar nomination predictions, plus who could be a surprise

EW awards correspondent Dave Karger breaks down his Oscar nomination predictions.

Will the 2023 Oscar nominations surprise fans, pundits, and Hollywood when they’re announced Tuesday morning?

EW award correspondent Dave Karger thinks we may get one or two.

Case in point:Andrea RiseboroughinTo Leslie.

“She’s British [but] she plays this Texas woman to perfection.

It’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen before.”

Whether it will pay off will come down to a numbers game.

“If you get 200 no.

I could see more people puttingMichelle Williamson their ballots, but I could see Andrea Riseborough getting more no.

1 votes than Michelle Williams, and that could make the difference….

I’m dying to see what happens.”

And Karger says don’t count out a big name in the lead actor race.

5 pick in the category whereAftersunstar Paul Mescalcould lose out in turn.